WTO Report: Artificial Intelligence Could Increase Global Trade by 40% by 2040, but Developing Nations Risk Falling Behind
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released a report that is sparking global debate: artificial intelligence (AI) could boost international trade in goods and services by up to 40% by the year 2040.
This ambitious projection highlights the enormous potential of AI to transform the global economy.
However, the WTO also warns that without the right policies, the opportunities offered by AI could deepen the economic divide between developed and developing nations—a concern that is particularly relevant for Hispanic America and the broader Hispanic world.
WTO projections
According to the report, lower logistics costs, higher productivity, and automation could drive global trade growth between 34% and 37% in different scenarios, reaching up to 40% in the most optimistic outlooks.
Moreover, the global GDP is expected to increase by 12–13% by 2040 as AI boosts key industries.
In 2023, trade in AI-related goods—such as semiconductors and digital technologies—had already reached an estimated value of $2.3 trillion.
This figure shows that the technological shift is already underway and that the coming years will be decisive.
A challenge for Hispanic America and the Hispanic world
While the figures are promising, the WTO stresses that the distribution of these benefits will depend on each country’s ability to invest in digital infrastructure, workforce training, and international cooperation.
For Hispanic America and Spanish-speaking countries, the challenge is even greater:
The digital divide remains wide, especially in rural areas.
Training in advanced technologies is still insufficient to meet the labor market of the future.
Trade regulations related to AI have multiplied: between 2012 and 2024 they rose from 130 to nearly 500, potentially making it harder for developing countries to access this new market.
Without timely action, these conditions could leave Hispanic countries lagging behind more developed economies.
Key statistics
34–40%: estimated increase in global trade by 2040 thanks to AI.
12–13%: projected increase in global GDP over the same period.
$2.3 trillion: value of trade in AI-related technologies in 2023.
500 AI-related trade restrictions in 2024, compared to around 130 in 2012.
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a lever for growth in international trade, with the potential to reshape the global economy in just two decades. For the Hispanic world, this represents both an opportunity and a risk.
The opportunity lies in AI’s ability to open markets, modernize production chains, and increase regional competitiveness.
But the risk is clear: without investment in infrastructure, technological education, and inclusive policies, the benefits will remain concentrated in developed countries, widening existing inequalities.
The challenge for Hispanic America and Hispanic communities is to decide whether this historic shift will serve as a chance to close gaps or as a new source of inequality. The time to act is now.
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